NASA Postdoctoral Fellow · Goddard Space Flight Center

Quadry
Chance

Astronomer and NASA Postdoctoral Fellow studying how planetary systems record their own formation histories: in the orbital scars of giant impacts, in the companions that reshape planet formation, and in the galactic environments where it all begins.

Planet formation
in dynamic systems

I am an astronomer and NASA Postdoctoral Fellow at Goddard Space Flight Center, working on the demographics of exoplanetary systems. The central question is what planetary architectures reveal about formation and evolution, approached through a combination of physical modeling and statistical inference on large survey datasets.

My dissertation approached this from three directions. I used N-body simulations to show how giant impacts and photoevaporation leave distinct demographic signatures on the population of small planets, with transit multiplicity as a diagnostic. I found that planets near the photoevaporative radius gap are dynamically distinct from their neighbors, breaking the "peas-in-a-pod" size similarity seen elsewhere and clustering near mean-motion resonances in ways that point toward a history of giant impacts rather than atmospheric escape alone. And I developed paired, a framework for identifying unresolved stellar binaries from Gaia DR3 radial velocity noise across tens of millions of sources.

My current work builds on all three threads. I am using the photoeccentric effect to test whether gap planets also carry elevated orbital eccentricities, the dynamical signature expected if giant impacts shaped them. I am applying paired to measure how planet occurrence depends on stellar multiplicity, quantifying planet-host binary occurrence rates at scale. And I am developing a paired-like classifier to identify binaries from Roman astrometry, extending the approach from radial velocities to a new observational regime.

The broader goal is to understand how the galactic environment (binary fraction, metallicity, dynamical history) shapes the planetary systems that form within it, connecting what Kepler sees in the solar neighborhood to what Roman will eventually reveal in the bulge.

Affiliations

NASA Goddard SFC University of Florida Fisk-Vanderbilt Bridge

Research Interests

Exoplanet demographics Radius gap System architectures Stellar binarity Galactic environment N-body simulations Gaia Kepler

Contact

quadry.chance@nasa.gov
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Greenbelt, MD

Three lines
of inquiry

01

The Radius Gap as a Dynamical Fossil

The photoevaporative radius gap separates super-Earths from sub-Neptunes, but atmospheric escape alone cannot fully explain the population that persists inside it. Planets straddling the gap in Kepler multiplanet systems are anomalously size-dissimilar with their neighbors and cluster near mean-motion resonances, patterns more consistent with a history of giant impacts than with quiet atmospheric sculpting. Ongoing work tests whether these planets also show elevated orbital eccentricities using the photoeccentric effect as a window into their collisional past.

02

paired: Gaia-based Binary Detection

paired is a statistical framework for identifying unresolved stellar binaries using excess radial-velocity noise in Gaia DR3, providing probabilistic classifications for roughly 30 million sources. Its key feature is forward modeling: given a binary population, it predicts the observable Gaia signal, allowing demographic hypotheses to be tested directly against survey data. The framework has been applied in studies of planet occurrence, stellar populations, and galactic kinematics, with an extension to Roman astrometry in development.

03

Galactic Environment & Planet Formation

Planet occurrence correlates with galactic height in ways that metallicity alone cannot explain. One candidate driver is the evolution of the stellar binary fraction over cosmic time: close binaries suppress planet occurrence by up to an order of magnitude, and the binary fraction itself increases with decreasing metallicity. This project uses paired to test whether a changing binary population across galactic history can account for the observed demographic gradients, from the solar neighborhood out to the bulge.

Selected work

2025

paired: Detecting Stellar Binarity with Gaia RVs. I. Sensitivity to Unresolved Binaries

Chance, Foreman-Mackey, Ballard, Casey, David, & Price-Whelan · ApJ, in press

ADS ↗
2024

Evidence that Planets in the Radius Gap Do Not Resemble Their Neighbors

Chance & Ballard · arXiv:2410.02150

arXiv ↗
2022

Signatures of Impact-Driven Atmospheric Loss in Large Ensembles of Exoplanets

Chance, Ballard, & Stassun · ApJ, 937, 39

ApJ ↗
Co-auth

The TESS Triple-9 Catalog

Cacciapuoti, Kostov, Kuchner, Chance et al. · MNRAS, 513, 102 (2022)

MNRAS ↗
Co-auth

Validation of the TOI-700 System

Gilbert, Barclay, Quintana, Chance et al. · AJ, 160, 116 (2020)

AJ ↗
Full list on ADS ↗

Birds & other wildlife

Birding and wildlife photography. Trying to fill the Pokédex. Sony A9 + 100–400mm, 400–800mm.

View the full gallery ↗

Stellar binary
classification

Query the paired catalog by Gaia DR3 source ID. Returns the RV p-value and semi-amplitude posterior (16th, 50th, 84th percentiles) for the requested star.

A low rv_pval indicates the star's Gaia RVS radial-velocity scatter is inconsistent with single-star noise, a statistical signature of an unresolved binary companion.

Data Release on Zenodo ↗

Gaia DR3 Source ID

Querying catalog …

Column Value