NASA Postdoctoral Fellow · Goddard Space Flight Center

Quadry
Chance

Astronomer and NASA Postdoctoral Fellow studying how planetary systems record their own formation histories: in the orbital scars of giant impacts, in the companions that reshape planet formation, and in the galactic environments where it all begins.

About

Planet formation
in dynamic systems

I am an astronomer and NASA Postdoctoral Fellow at Goddard Space Flight Center, working on the demographics of exoplanetary systems. The central question is what planetary architectures reveal about formation and evolution, approached through a combination of physical modeling and statistical inference on large survey datasets.

My dissertation focused on planets near the photoevaporative radius gap. These worlds are dynamically distinct from their neighbors (anomalously size-dissimilar and clustered near mean-motion resonances) in ways that point toward a history of giant impacts rather than atmospheric escape alone. That work motivates an ongoing project using the photoeccentric effect to test whether gap planets also carry elevated orbital eccentricities. I also developed paired, a framework for identifying unresolved stellar binaries from Gaia DR3 radial velocity noise across tens of millions of sources.

The broader goal is to understand how the galactic environment (binary fraction, metallicity, dynamical history) shapes the planetary systems that form within it, connecting what Kepler sees in the solar neighborhood to what Roman will eventually reveal in the bulge.

Affiliations

NASA Goddard SFC University of Florida Fisk-Vanderbilt Bridge

Research Interests

Exoplanet demographics Radius gap System architectures Stellar binarity Galactic environment N-body simulations Gaia Kepler

Contact

[email protected]
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Greenbelt, MD

Research

01

The Radius Gap as a Dynamical Fossil

The photoevaporative radius gap separates super-Earths from sub-Neptunes, but atmospheric escape alone cannot fully explain the population that persists inside it. Planets straddling the gap in Kepler multiplanet systems are anomalously size-dissimilar with their neighbors and cluster near mean-motion resonances, patterns more consistent with a history of giant impacts than with quiet atmospheric sculpting. Ongoing work tests whether these planets also show elevated orbital eccentricities using the photoeccentric effect as a window into their collisional past.

02

paired: Gaia-based Binary Detection

paired is a statistical framework for identifying unresolved stellar binaries using excess radial-velocity noise in Gaia DR3, providing probabilistic classifications for roughly 30 million sources. Its key feature is forward modeling: given a binary population, it predicts the observable Gaia signal, allowing demographic hypotheses to be tested directly against survey data. The framework has been applied in studies of planet occurrence, stellar populations, and galactic kinematics, with an extension to Roman astrometry in development.

03

Galactic Environment & Planet Formation

Planet occurrence correlates with galactic height in ways that metallicity alone cannot explain. One candidate driver is the evolution of the stellar binary fraction over cosmic time: close binaries suppress planet occurrence by up to an order of magnitude, and the binary fraction itself increases with decreasing metallicity. This project uses paired to test whether a changing binary population across galactic history can account for the observed demographic gradients, from the solar neighborhood out to the bulge.

Publications

2025

paired: Detecting Stellar Binarity with Gaia RVs. I. Sensitivity to Unresolved Binaries

Chance, Foreman-Mackey, Ballard, Casey, David, & Price-Whelan · ApJ, in press

ADS ↗
2024

Evidence that Planets in the Radius Gap Do Not Resemble Their Neighbors

Chance & Ballard · arXiv:2410.02150

arXiv ↗
2022

Signatures of Impact-Driven Atmospheric Loss in Large Ensembles of Exoplanets

Chance, Ballard, & Stassun · ApJ, 937, 39

ApJ ↗
Co-auth

The TESS Triple-9 Catalog

Cacciapuoti, Kostov, Kuchner, Chance et al. · MNRAS, 513, 102 (2022)

MNRAS ↗
Co-auth

Validation of the TOI-700 System

Gilbert, Barclay, Quintana, Chance et al. · AJ, 160, 116 (2020)

AJ ↗
Full list on ADS ↗

Wildlife Photography

Field notes
in light

Birding and wildlife photography — trying to fill the Pokédex. Sony A9 + 100–400mm. Lifers welcome.

Nuthatch carrying food Nuthatch with food
Limpkin portrait Limpkin
Red-headed Woodpecker on branch Red-headed Woodpecker
Black-and-white Warbler on tree trunk Black-and-white Warbler
Red-shouldered Hawk portrait Red-shouldered Hawk
Yellow-rumped Warbler against blue sky Yellow-rumped Warbler
Ruby-crowned Kinglet on branch Ruby-crowned Kinglet
Hermit Thrush in branches Hermit Thrush
Downy Woodpecker hanging upside down Downy Woodpecker
Red-winged Blackbird in flight Red-winged Blackbird · in flight
Flycatcher holding a dragonfly Flycatcher with dragonfly
Red-bellied Woodpecker on tree trunk Red-bellied Woodpecker
Sandhill Crane standing in grass Sandhill Crane
Kingfisher perched on a branch Kingfisher
Hummingbird at bottlebrush flowers Hummingbird at bottlebrush

Stellar binary
classification

Query the paired catalog by Gaia DR3 source ID. Returns the RV p-value and semi-amplitude posterior (16th, 50th, 84th percentiles) for the requested star.

A low rv_pval indicates the star's Gaia RVS radial-velocity scatter is inconsistent with single-star noise — a statistical signature of an unresolved binary companion.

Data Release on Zenodo ↗

Gaia DR3 Source ID

Querying catalog …

Column Value