NASA Postdoctoral Fellow · Goddard Space Flight Center
Astronomer and NASA Postdoctoral Fellow studying how planetary systems record their own formation histories: in the orbital scars of giant impacts, in the companions that reshape planet formation, and in the galactic environments where it all begins.
About
I am an astronomer and NASA Postdoctoral Fellow at Goddard Space Flight Center, working on the demographics of exoplanetary systems. The central question is what planetary architectures reveal about formation and evolution, approached through a combination of physical modeling and statistical inference on large survey datasets.
My dissertation focused on planets near the photoevaporative radius gap. These worlds
are dynamically distinct from their neighbors (anomalously size-dissimilar and clustered
near mean-motion resonances) in ways that point toward a history of giant impacts rather
than atmospheric escape alone. That work motivates an ongoing project using the
photoeccentric effect to test whether gap planets also carry elevated orbital
eccentricities. I also developed
paired,
a framework for identifying unresolved stellar binaries from Gaia DR3 radial velocity
noise across tens of millions of sources.
The broader goal is to understand how the galactic environment (binary fraction, metallicity, dynamical history) shapes the planetary systems that form within it, connecting what Kepler sees in the solar neighborhood to what Roman will eventually reveal in the bulge.
Affiliations
Research Interests
Contact
[email protected]
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Greenbelt, MD
Research
01
The Radius Gap as a Dynamical Fossil
The photoevaporative radius gap separates super-Earths from sub-Neptunes, but atmospheric escape alone cannot fully explain the population that persists inside it. Planets straddling the gap in Kepler multiplanet systems are anomalously size-dissimilar with their neighbors and cluster near mean-motion resonances, patterns more consistent with a history of giant impacts than with quiet atmospheric sculpting. Ongoing work tests whether these planets also show elevated orbital eccentricities using the photoeccentric effect as a window into their collisional past.
02
paired: Gaia-based Binary Detection
paired
is a statistical framework for identifying unresolved stellar binaries using excess
radial-velocity noise in Gaia DR3, providing probabilistic classifications for roughly
30 million sources. Its key feature is forward modeling: given a binary population,
it predicts the observable Gaia signal, allowing demographic hypotheses to be tested
directly against survey data. The framework has been applied in studies of planet
occurrence, stellar populations, and galactic kinematics, with an extension to Roman
astrometry in development.
03
Galactic Environment & Planet Formation
Planet occurrence correlates with galactic height in ways that metallicity alone
cannot explain. One candidate driver is the evolution of the stellar binary fraction
over cosmic time: close binaries suppress planet occurrence by up to an order of
magnitude, and the binary fraction itself increases with decreasing metallicity. This
project uses
paired
to test whether a changing binary population across galactic history can account for
the observed demographic gradients, from the solar neighborhood out to the bulge.
Publications
paired: Detecting Stellar Binarity with Gaia RVs. I. Sensitivity to Unresolved Binaries
Chance, Foreman-Mackey, Ballard, Casey, David, & Price-Whelan · ApJ, in press
Evidence that Planets in the Radius Gap Do Not Resemble Their Neighbors
Chance & Ballard · arXiv:2410.02150
Signatures of Impact-Driven Atmospheric Loss in Large Ensembles of Exoplanets
Chance, Ballard, & Stassun · ApJ, 937, 39
The TESS Triple-9 Catalog
Cacciapuoti, Kostov, Kuchner, Chance et al. · MNRAS, 513, 102 (2022)
Validation of the TOI-700 System
Gilbert, Barclay, Quintana, Chance et al. · AJ, 160, 116 (2020)
Wildlife Photography
Birding and wildlife photography — trying to fill the Pokédex. Sony A9 + 100–400mm. Lifers welcome.
Nuthatch with food
Limpkin
Red-headed Woodpecker
Black-and-white Warbler
Red-shouldered Hawk
Yellow-rumped Warbler
Ruby-crowned Kinglet
Hermit Thrush
Downy Woodpecker
Red-winged Blackbird · in flight
Flycatcher with dragonfly
Red-bellied Woodpecker
Sandhill Crane
Kingfisher
Hummingbird at bottlebrush
paired Catalog
Query the paired
catalog by Gaia DR3 source ID. Returns the RV p-value and semi-amplitude posterior
(16th, 50th, 84th percentiles) for the requested star.
A low rv_pval
indicates the star's Gaia RVS radial-velocity scatter is inconsistent with
single-star noise — a statistical signature of an unresolved binary companion.
Gaia DR3 Source ID
Querying catalog …
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